The Stats Don't Lie

Confession: I was a math major in college. Before that I was a biomedical engineering major. Numbers matter. 

Call me a rugby nerd, but statistics are fascinating and the pool breakdowns ahead of this weekend's Tokyo 7s are interesting! I'm really excited looking at all of this data! Analyzing which teams pass the most/the least and at what , which teams retain possession, which commit the most/least penalties and the most/least tries scored/conceded tells you a very accurate and precise story of how the current standings are what they are.

I hope they do a similar comparison after the tournament/before Hong Kong to help the the tale of why teams win and do a head-to-head analysis of before-after. I've long thought that rugby stats ARE relevant and worth keeping. Turnovers, just as in every other major professional sport, are the most telling stat of all. If you can maintain possession of your ball and steal possession from the other team you *should* win the match- be it 7s or 15s. How fast you score and the amount of passes/tackles before that score are just bonus stats on the numbers cake.

And when it comes to developing players and establishing goals, numbers are an easy, quantitative way to evaluate progress. When you remove the guesswork of why player A is better than player B, when you look at individual players game statistics, the story of who is starting and why is easier to tell. And team goals are also easier to set - instead of "winning  most lineouts" you can put a number on it and evaluate whether or not you hit tour mark or need to reevaluate that number. Then training becomes more informed and problems are solved!

Here's the iRBs statistical analysis at each of the Tokyo 7s pools:

Tokyo 7s analysis Pool A: NZL, CAN, WAL, POR

(IRB.COM) Wednesday 19 March 2014

 

Simple stats: So far this season New Zealand have scored the most tries and conceded the least

 

New Zealand - @nz7s
Rd 1 - Australia: 1st
Rd 2 - Dubai: 3rd
Rd 3 - South Africa: 2nd
Rd 4 - USA: 2nd
Rd 5 - NZ: 1st
Series rank: 1st (up from 2nd) 

IRB Game Analysis Department says: New Zealand have scored the most tries per game (4.4) whilst conceding the least (1.1), so it's not surprising that they are top of the Series. They have the third-highest average possession time (4'04) and score a try every 56 seconds of that possession. They have the highest rate of turnovers won per game (4.1 in general play and 1.8 at tackle/ruck/maul) and a low rate of turnovers lost per game (2.9 in general play and 1.0 in the contact area). In terms of their style of play, they have the third lowest rate of taking the ball into contact (one tackle/ruck/maul every 32.4 seconds of possession), and when they do take the ball into contact they retain possession 81% of the time - the third highest ratio. 

Canada - @rugbycanada
Rd 1 - Australia: Bowl runners-up 10th
Rd 2 - Dubai: Bowl SF
Rd 3 - South Africa: Shield runners-up 14th
Rd 4 - USA: 3rd
Rd 5 - NZ: Plate runners-up (6th)
Series rank: 9th (up from 11th)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Canada have the sixth-highest average tries scored per game (2.9), but the seventh-highest tries conceded (3.0). They are the masters of grinding out tight wins, though, often coming from behind. 47% of their victories have been won by a margin of five points or less, and 50% of their losses have been by 10 points or less. The strength of their combined forward power means they are third only to South Africa and New Zealand in possession retention at the tackle/ruck/maul (81%). 

Wales - @welshrugbyunion
Rd 1 - Australia: Cup QF
Rd 2 - Dubai: Plate runners-up 6th
Rd 3 - South Africa: Bowl SF
Rd 4 - USA: Bowl SF
Rd 5 - NZ: Bowl SF
Series rank: 11th (down from 10th)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Wales are currently 11th in the Series, which seems to be largely down to their porous defence. They are the eighth-best in terms of points scored per game (17.4) but third-worst of the 15 core teams in terms of average points conceded (22.1). In terms of how they approach the game, the quality of Rhys Jones's drop-kicking is key, allowing them to contest 82% of their own restarts, of which they retain 43%. Also on the plus side for coach Gareth Williams, they are the side least likely to concede a turnover in general play (2.8 per game) but most likely to concede a turnover at the tackle/ruck/maul (1.5 per game); and they are also the most disciplined team in the series, conceding just 2.8 penalties or free-kicks, including just 2.0 at the tackle/ruck/maul per game. 

Portugal - @portugalrugby
Rd 1 - Australia: Shield runners-up
Rd 2 - Dubai: Bowl runners-up 10th
Rd 3 - South Africa: Cup QF
Rd 4 - USA: Shield SF
Rd 5 - NZ: Shield SF
Series rank: 13th (same) 

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Of all the sides, Portugal have the second-lowest try count (1.9 per game) and the second-highest in the tries conceded column (4.3). This may be down to the fact that they are the team most likely to concede turnovers in general play (4.3 per game) and third most likely to concede turnovers at tackle/ruck/maul (1.2 per game), retaining on only 72% of their own ball at the tackle/ruck/maul. 68% of tries conceded by Portugal have originated from a conceded penalty, free-kick or a lost turnover.

Tokyo 7s analysis Pool B: RSA, ARG, KEN, JPN

(IRB.COM) Wednesday 19 March 2014

 

Much of South Africa's success this season has been built on solid defence and work at the breakdown

South Africa - @bokrugby
Rd 1 - Australia: 4th
Rd 2 - Dubai: 2nd
Rd 3 - South Africa: 1st
Rd 4 - USA: 1st
Rd 5 - NZ: 2nd
Series rank: 2nd (down from 1st) 

IRB Game Analysis Department says: The Blitzbokke have the third-highest tries scored per game (3.8) and second-lowest tries conceded (1.4). In terms of how they are playing the game, they are the least frequent passers in the series, passing every 8.1 seconds of possession, and 75% of all their tries have been scored with three or less passes in the possession sequence. They are the most competitive team in the tackle/ruck/maul situation with a 85% retention rate and winning 1.8 turnovers per game at the tackle/ruck/maul. 

Argentina - @unionargentina
Rd 1 - Australia: Bowl SF
Rd 2 - Dubai: Plate winners 5th
Rd 3 - South Africa: 4th
Rd 4 - USA: Cup QF
Rd 5 - NZ: Cup QF
Series rank: 7th (same)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Argentina's defence is mean with the third lowest try concession rate per game (2.3). They have to do a lot of tackling too as the team with the second lowest average possession time per game (3'11), and are the team least likely to pass in the Series with one pass per 7.8 seconds and an average of only 24.5 passes per game. They have conceded the third-least number of turnovers in general play (2.3 per game) but are the fourth most likely to lose possession at the tackle/ruck/maul are (1.2 per game), suggesting high skill and low error levels in general play but vulnerability at the tackle/ruck/maul. 

Kenya - @kenya7s
Rd 1 - Australia: Plate runners-up 6th
Rd 2 - Dubai: Cup QF
Rd 3 - South Africa: Cup QF
Rd 4 - USA: Bowl runners-up 10th
Rd 5 - NZ: Bowl winners 9th
Series rank: 8th (same)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: This season in contrast to last, Kenya are the third most-likely team to take the ball into contact with a tackle/ruck/maul every 22.3 seconds of possession, and 44% of their tries have been scored with at least one tackle/ruck/maul in the build-up. They are the fourth best at winning a turnover of possession (3.6 in general play and 1.3 at the tackle/ruck/maul per game) but are second most likely to concede a turnover of possession (3.8 in general play and 1.4 at the tackle/ruck/maul per game). Interestingly, they are also the most disciplined at the tackle/ruck/maul, conceding an average of 2.0 penalties there per game. They are only 11th-best in terms of tries scored this season (15.5 points per game on average) but are the seventh-best in defence, conceding
17.2 points per game. 

Japan - @JRFURugby
Rd 1 - Australia: N/A
Rd 2 - Dubai: N/A
Rd 3 - South Africa: N/A
Rd 4 - USA: N/A
Rd 5 - NZ: N/A
Series rank: no ranking points

IRB Game Analysis Department says: First outing for Japan on this World Series. However, expect a fast-paced game based on dynamic handling and keeping the ball alive against more physical opposition. When they do hit rucks they're dynamic.

Tokyo 7s analysis Pool C: FJI, SAM, FRA, USA

(IRB.COM) Tuesday 18 March 2014

 

Prolific: When Fiji have the ball this season, they score a try every 44 seconds

 

With the help of the IRB's Game Analysis department, we look at how the four teams in Pool C in Tokyo - Fiji, Samoa, France and USA - are doing so far this season..

Fiji - @fijirugby
Rd 1 - Australia: Plate winners 5th
Rd 2 - Dubai: 1st
Rd 3 - South Africa: Plate winners 5th
Rd 4 - USA: Bowl winners 9th
Rd 5 - NZ: 3rd
Series rank: 3rd (same)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Fiji's is the highest try-scoring rate in the series with a try coming with every 44 seconds of possession. However, they enjoy the third-lowest amount of possession (3'15 per match) so rely on this strong ratio. In terms of how they play, they have a low rate of passing, and of taking the ball into contact, with 76% of their tries scored with three or less passes in the build-up and 85% of tries scored with no tackle/ruck/maul in the build-up. Of all the teams, they have the highest rate of ‘tackle-only’ situations (4.3 per game), suggesting that they don’t frequently compete at the breakdown, but when they do they are successful in turning over possession. However, in terms of looking after their own ball at the tackle/ruck/maul they have the lowest retention rate in the series (72%), showing perhaps why they opt not to go into contact. Of Fiji's losses, 67% have been by a margin of 10 points or less and 50% by 5 points or less. 

Samoa - @manusamoa
Rd 1 - Australia: Cup QF
Rd 2 - Dubai: Bowl SF
Rd 3 - South Africa: 3rd
Rd 4 - USA: 4th
Rd 5 - NZ: Cup QF
Series rank: 6th (down from 5th)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Samoa have the highest rate of passing in the series with one pass every 5.9 seconds of possession. They also have the fourth highest average possession time (3min 54s), so that's a lot of passes in total. Allied to that passing game, they are the fourth-least likely to take the ball into contact (1 tackle/ruck/maul every 29.1 seconds of possession) and 47% of their tries are scored with more than three passes in the build-up, suggesting Samoa's style is focused on passing, movement and space rather than phase-play and contact, contrary to what many people might expect.

France - @francerugby7s
Rd 1 - Australia: Bowl winners 9th
Rd 2 - Dubai: Shield winners 13th
Rd 3 - South Africa: Plate runners-up 6th
Rd 4 - USA: Cup QF
Rd 5 - NZ: Bowl SF
Series rank: 10th (down from 9th)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Contrary to the commonly-held notion about French rugby, les bleus have the third-lowest try scoring rate with a try scored every 96 seconds of possession, while they are conceding a try every 75 seconds of opposition possession. They are, however, the third most disciplined team at the tackle/ruck/maul area, conceding an average of 2.1 penalties in this area per game. 

USA - @usarugby
Rd 1 - Australia: Shield winners 13th
Rd 2 - Dubai: Shield SF
Rd 3 - South Africa: Bowl SF
Rd 4 - USA: Shield winners 13th
Rd 5 - NZ: Shield winners 13th
Series rank: 14th (same)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: USA have the fourth-lowest try count with 2.4 per game and have conceded the fourth-highest number (3.4 per game). They are the third-lowest passers in the series (one pass every 7.5 seconds of possession) but the second most likely to take the ball into contact (one tackle/ruck/maul every 21.5 seconds of possession). Worryingly for coach Matt Hawkins, they are the least disciplined team in the series at the tackle/ruck/maul, conceding 3.0 penalties there per game and 4.1 penalties / free-kicks per match overall, and 34% of tries scored against them originate from a conceded penalty or free kick.

Tokyo 7s analysis Pool D: ENG, AUS, SCO, ESP

(IRB.COM) Tuesday 18 March 2014

 

Tom Mitchell's kicking is helping England kick 89% 

contestable restarts, and win 37% of those back

 

England - @englandrugby
Rd 1 - Australia: 3rd
Rd 2 - Dubai: 4th
Rd 3 - South Africa: Bowl winners 9th
Rd 4 - USA: Plate winners 5th
Rd 5 - NZ: 4th
Series rank: 4th (same)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Simon Amor's side has scored the third-highest number of points per game (25.0) and has the fourth meanest defence (13.6 pts). Tom Mitchell's kicking helps them have the highest conversion success in the series (81.4), and they are also the most likely to kick contestable restarts (89%), regaining possession on 37% of those contestable kicks. That is a key stat as 23% of their tries have been scored from possession regained at the restart (second highest). In terms of how they're playing the game, they have a low rate of turnovers won per game (2.5 in general play and 0.5 at the tackle/ruck/maul), and have the third lowest possession retention rate at the tackle/ruck/maul (74%). Instead, they are the second-highest in terms of tackle-only situations (3.7 per game). 

Australia - @aussie7s
Rd 1 - Australia: 2nd
Rd 2 - Dubai: Bowl winners 9th
Rd 3 - South Africa: Bowl runners-up 10th
Rd 4 - USA: Plate runners-up 6th
Rd 5 - NZ: Plate winners 5th
Series rank: 5th (up from 6th)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Of the 15 core teams, Australia are the fifth-highest try-scorers (3.5 per game) and the fifth meanest in terms of tries conceded (2.3 per game). They have the highest average possession time (4'05), scoring a try every 71 seconds of possession. Of all the sides, they are also most likely to take the ball into contact (11.8 tackle/ruck/mauls per game and one tackle/ruck/maul every 20.8 seconds of possession), and they retain possession at 83% of those tackle/ruck/mauls. They are also the most disciplined team, conceding an average of 2.8 penalties or free kicks per game, and the fourth-most disciplined at the tackle/ruck/maul, but they are also the second most likely team to be penalised in possession at the tackle/ruck/maul, with 48% of their tackle/ruck/maul penalties conceded coming from their own possession. Of Australia's losses, 70% have been by a margin of 10 points or less and they've won 37% of their victories by five points or less, so lots of tight games. 

Scotland - @scotlandteam
Rd 1 - Australia: Bowl SF
Rd 2 - Dubai: Cup QF
Rd 3 - South Africa: Shield winners 13th
Rd 4 - USA: Bowl SF
Rd 5 - NZ: Bowl runners-up
Series rank: 12th (same)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: Scotland have the highest average possession per game (4'05) and the highest passing rate in the series (41.1 per game with a pass every 6.0 seconds of possession) but the third-lowest try scoring rate, with a try every 96 seconds they have the ball. They concede the fourth-highest number of tries (a try conceded every 64 seconds of possession) and are the third most likely to concede a penalty at tackle/ruck/maul (2.7 per game), 57% of which are when they are in possession of the ball. 

Spain - @spain7s
Rd 1 - Australia: Shield SF
Rd 2 - Dubai: Shield runners-up 14th
Rd 3 - South Africa: Shield SF
Rd 4 - USA: Shield runners-up 14th
Rd 5 - NZ: Shield runners-up 14th
Series rank: 15th (same)

IRB Game Analysis Department says: The statistics don't lie for the lowest-ranked of the 15 core teams, and most likely at this stage to be relegated at the end of the season: Spain have scored the least points per game (9.3) and conceded the most (30.0). They have the lowest average possession time per game at 3'09 and 67% of the tries they've conceded have been scored quickly, with less than three passes in the possession build-up, suggesting missed first-up tackles.